Objective selection of model run from regional climate models ensemble

In this paper, a method was developed in relation to the north-western coast of Black Sea order determine optimal model run from regional climate models ensemble.
 As result change, which has been observed since late 1980s Ukraine, various natural objects changes have also transformed. The study such future is possible only by using runs global or models. Moreover, step spatial grid must be comparative with size object under study.
 Sea, change characterized increasing aridity and corresponding decrease freshwater inflows into coastal lagoons their catchments, making ecosystems these sensitive vulnerable change. Using numerical impact on requires input hydrometeorological information points, distance between should correspond horizontal lagoons, i.e. several kilometers.
 data scenarios RCP4.5 RCP8.5 ensemble 14 different climatic CORDEX project were used simulate temperature precipitation regime. For each point scenario, single simulation selected ensemble, best reproduces intra-annual temperature, precipitation, evaporation compared means.
 Despite sufficiently large estuaries, allowed selection run, shows significant differences spring summer as well year-around southern northern parts northwestern region. This relationship Sea.